Leeds and Newcastle meet at Elland Road in Gameweek 4 with five points apiece, leaving little to separate them in the early table. That makes the predicted line-ups the main Fantasy Premier League question ahead of Monday’s fixture: managers need to weigh likely minutes and roles against the limited form data available after three matches.
Kick-off is scheduled for 20:00 BST on Monday 14 September. The selections below are predictions, and they may change after the clubs’ pre-match press conferences. Team news updates are available here, alongside the latest press conference information.
That uncertainty matters in FPL because a player’s value depends on more than whether he starts. A change in position, a reduced role, or an early substitution can affect both his chance of returning points and the reliability of a captaincy or transfer decision. There’s no guarantee that a predicted XI will match the eventual selection.
Predicted FPL line-ups
Leeds
Newcastle
The graphics show the predicted selections for both sides, giving managers a starting point for checking their squads before the deadline. They should be read as informed estimates rather than confirmed team sheets; the available text doesn’t identify individual players or explain the reasoning behind each selection.
If you're working through a transfer decision, the practical question is whether a player is expected to start and whether his role gives him a credible route to points. A name in a predicted line-up can help with the first assessment, but it can’t settle the second on its own.
Form and expected goal involvement
Newcastle are level sixth after three matches, while Leeds are ninth. Both have five points, though Newcastle’s goal difference is +2 compared with Leeds’ +1. Their recent sequences are also close: Newcastle have recorded DWD, while Leeds have WDD.
Those records offer only a narrow snapshot. Three games are enough to describe each club’s opening results, but they’re a small sample for judging attacking reliability or defensive strength. A draw, win, or defeat tells you what happened; it doesn’t show by itself how consistently a side created chances or limited them.
The accompanying data highlights each team’s leading players for expected goal involvement (xGI) across the opening three Gameweeks. xGI combines expected goals and expected assists, offering a way to assess how often a player has been involved in situations that could produce a goal. It’s useful as context for FPL decisions, though it remains an estimate rather than a record of points already scored.
The chart can help identify which players have been most involved in expected scoring chances, but it doesn’t establish who’ll start on Monday or predict a return in this particular match. Managers should read it alongside the predicted line-ups and any confirmed team news. A high xGI figure is a signal to investigate, not a guarantee.
What the fixture means for FPL decisions
With points and recent results closely matched, neither team’s early record gives a decisive edge. The final team news before kick-off could therefore have more practical value than the table positions: confirmation of a regular starter may make a close decision easier, while uncertainty over minutes can weaken an otherwise appealing option.
And yet, this remains one fixture in a long FPL season. A single match can swing a gameweek, but it can’t make three-game form a reliable forecast by itself. This is more significant than it looks for managers choosing between similar options: the quality of the available evidence is part of the decision.
(And this is the part most people overlook.) Predicted line-ups and xGI answer different questions: one estimates who may play, while the other tracks involvement in expected chances. Putting them together can sharpen a judgment, but neither removes the uncertainty. Check the press conference updates, then make the call with the information available.
One final check before the deadline.