As part of our Half-Term report series, we turn our attention to Leeds United, who have made a strong impression so far in the Premier League. With the unexpected return to top-flight football, Leeds aims to build on their legacy of resilience and prowess that defined their previous periods in the league.
Under the management of Daniel Farke, Leeds currently occupies fifth place, boasting an unbeaten record in the 2026/27 season. This positioning has stirred excitement among fans, though it also invites scrutiny. With an increasingly difficult schedule on the horizon, questions arise about whether they can sustain this momentum. The tenor of their performance thus far suggests a blend of fortuity and strategic insight, but can it withstand the pressures of a more demanding fixture list?
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RESULTS SO FAR
| GW | Result | Leeds’ xG | Leeds’ xGC |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nottm Forest 0-1 Leeds | 0.47 | 0.66 |
| 2 | Leeds 1-1 Brentford | 1.46 | 1.67 |
| 3 | Brighton 1-1 Leeds | 2.49 | 2.19 |
| 4 | Leeds 4-1 Newcastle | 1.99 | 0.88 |
| 5 | Leeds 0-0 Crystal Palace | 1.31 | 1.06 |
Leeds has yet to concede more than one goal per match this season, a notable feat given that they have allowed the fewest goals in the Premier League, with only three against. While they've enjoyed a commendable defensive showing, scoring has presented challenges, particularly outside of their eye-catching triumph over Newcastle. This inconsistency raises concerns about their long-term viability as title contenders.
The competitive nature of the league is evident in Leeds' xG statistics, which reflect tight contests. Ignoring the Newcastle game, their matches had close xG margins of between 0.19 and 0.30, indicating closely-fought encounters. What this means is that even though Leeds sits high in the table, their path is fraught with unpredictability. Their position is not assured, and their ability to convert xG into actual goals will be pivotal as they face stronger oppositions ahead.
XG/XGC RANKINGS IN CONTEXT
| Total | Rank vs Other Clubs | |
|---|---|---|
| xG | 7.72 | 9th= |
| xGC | 6.46 | 5th |
Defensively, Leeds has shown strong numbers. Despite a relatively favorable start, they rank low in several attacking metrics, including total shots (60) and attempts on target (17). This discrepancy raises eyebrows: can a team ranked fifth in goals allowed also rank so poorly in terms of offensive prowess? The contrast between their open-play and set-piece xG highlights strategic inconsistencies, with their set-piece xG ranking significantly higher than their open-play efforts. If they can't find a more balanced approach to scoring, teams will catch on, stifling Leeds’ attack and leaving them vulnerable to counter-attacks.
LINE-UP OBSERVATIONS
An interesting development in Leeds' lineup shows that seven players have consistently started each match this season. This figure likely would have included Gabriel Gudmundsson (£4.5m) if not for an early-season injury. Such injuries can significantly derail a team's cohesion, particularly for those who are still gelling under a new coaching philosophy. Another impactful shift occurred with defender Jaka Bijol (£5.0m), who lost his starting position after a poor performance in Gameweek 2, allowing newcomer Nico Elvedi (£4.5m) to step in.
Joe Rodon (£4.3m) is set for a prolonged absence, which has seen James Justin (£4.5m) transition from wing-back to center-back. Meanwhile, Ao Tanaka (£4.9m) has taken the place of Brenden Aaronson (£5.3m) in midfield, a situation that may shift again as Farke seeks the best combinations. This constant change can lead to instability in team dynamics, creating an environment where partnerships on the field may fail to thrive. And this is the part most people overlook; player chemistry often dictates performance, especially when facing tough opponents.
SET-PIECE TAKERS
| Corners | Stach (17), Wilson (5) |
| Free-kick Crosses | Stach (5), Wilson (2) |
| Direct Free-kick Shots | Stach (4) |
| Penalties | n/a |
With Harry Wilson’s early-season demotion to a substitute and subsequent injury, Anton Stach has become the main figure at set plays, ranking among the league's top performers for direct free-kick attempts, with one such shot converting into a goal. This shift could prove vital if Leeds aims to capitalize on netting from set pieces, especially in closely contested matches where goals are at a premium.
FPL EXPERTS' INSIGHTS
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OTHER HALF-TERM REPORTS
Arsenal (coming soon) | Aston Villa | Bournemouth | Brentford | Brighton | Chelsea | Coventry | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Ipswich | Leeds | Liverpool | Man City (coming soon) | Man Utd (coming soon) | Newcastle (coming soon) | Nottm Forest (coming soon) | Sunderland (coming soon) | Tottenham (coming soon)
FUTURE OUTLOOK FOR LEEDS UNITED
As Leeds United progresses through this season, the challenges multiply. Factors like player fitness, fixture difficulty, and tactical adaptability will shape their performance in the coming weeks. If you're working in this space, it's essential to keep a close eye on how Farke's tactics evolve, especially with several key injuries impacting their lineup.
The data suggests that while Leeds may have started well, maintaining their current pace will require a shift in their strategic approach. They will need to improve their offensive metrics to stay competitive amongst the top teams. This isn’t just about remaining in fifth place — it’s about ensuring they become a fixture in the top tier of English football. The xG figures alone reveal that Leeds must convert more opportunities into goals if they want fans to remain optimistic as the season unfolds.